What are your hosting market predictions for 2020?
So what is everyones predictions for big changes for 2020? Mine are:
- Solus.io finally launches at $4/m/core with Solus VM1 set to sunset 12mo to 18mo after initial
- WHMCS sunsets lifetime licenses with the launch of v8.0. To add to the displeasure they remove the "unlimited customers" option and requires everyone pay $0.30/month/active or similar.
- More mergers/buyouts as datacenters continue to roll out products competing with their own users.
- Plesk removes their unlimited domain option.
- Directadmin prunes back the amount of OS' they support to allow them to make it easier to maintain the product.
#2 I stole from @qps.
Francisco
Comments
Hosting start offer dedicated IPv6.
Action and Reaction in history
Someone will hack Oakley, massive leak, end is neigh.
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@Francisco based on what you posted the prices of hosting will go up significantly
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I don't think WHMCS will retire owned licenses, but I guess with the ownership nothing should be surprising. The good thing there is that there are other great options besides the two or three big ones.
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Wow!
OpenStack, SaaS, PaaS, kubernetes, docker
I would research these because its 2019, the old school market will last, but you wont be able to evolve
From a customer/developer perspective, I would like to see these in the low-end providers as well,
We did quite a lot of freelancing work for the first two so I know a few hosts will be coming up with these.
Shared Hosting could revive if marketed right. Right now marketing is unfortunately limited to cost. SharedHosting basically does all the above but is limited to PHP. I have worked with a few who are investing in deployment platforms directly/tightly related to Laravel, Symfony etc. So when they launch they call themselves a cool and trendy Laravel/Symfony App host with managed DB/LB etc (while internally it is just calling DirectAdmin/Cpanel/CustomPanel APIs).
The main reason for this change I believe is Hosting companies cannot directly compete with their Datacenter providers with such cut throat rates (as Francisco said) and they need to quickly start differentiating themselves.
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I am really interested to see how solus.io is received, I fear they believe that the current customer base will support it, I suspect that it will not be a rapid take up at all.
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My prediction for 2020 is that CloudLinux will provide MySQL Governor support for MariaDB 10.4
My hope is that the WHMCS heard splits a bit and even if people don't switch to Blesta, they open their mind up to alternatives.
Michael from DragonWebHost & OnePoundEmail
I read this as "Housing Market Predictions", and my response is virtually the same. Shit gonna climb until the bottom falls out again.
"It's a hard life- to be a stick insect." - Karl Pilkington
The same applies to both markets. If you got in early, you're lucky.
Michael from DragonWebHost & OnePoundEmail
Certainties:
Very Likely:
I would not rule out cPanel making 'refinements' to their pricing. I would also not rule out the same from Direct Admin although 2020 may be a bit soon in their case, depends on how successful the cPanel price increases have been for them in terms of attraction.
Also, I see more competition in the cloud markets currently dominated by DigitalOcean and others and that to some degree ties in with the more mergers/buyouts point noted above.
Yes, I see it now.
Openstack everywhere.
Michael from DragonWebHost & OnePoundEmail
I agree. As a developer that is using/creating Docker for basically everything, my server I use for hosting my projects is basically a minimal OS with only firewall and Docker installed. Maintaining the host OS is something I'm not interested in to do, I want to go serverless without the limitations of traditional shared hosting. What DigitalOcean and Scaleway have shown us is just the beginning (or at lest I hope so).
Please no.
I don't think that's fortunately ever going to happen though.
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Unfortunately, this is happening; just a matter of when and how hard they turn the screws. Given what happened with cPanel, I'm not optimistic. It's going to hurt.
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This looks like a very interesting model that can change the industry quite a bit.
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It will be interesting to see what ends up happening.
I can say we will see a lot more bandwidth options for 2020 from providers. We are waiting on quite a few 100G ports to be setup for sometime in 2020.
It would be interesting if WHMCS removed the lifetime options from all of us that own them. We have 6+ owned licenses, hopefully nothing big changes with them for a few more years until our own system is built.
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Isn't this basically what PaaS (Platform-as-a-Service) is? Think things like Heroku and AWS Elastic Beanstalk. Dokku is pretty interesting for self-hosting.
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Bigger issue is that a lot of backbone providers don't have the capacity in places.
HE is still 10gbit in a lot of markets with Cogent being similar.
In my case I'd be getting bit for 2 of the 3 products discussed in my post.
Still, a lot of hosts haven't announced new pricing for cPanel (OVH just recently posted their changes).
I expect a lot more people to move to DA or to "purpose built" services like the "hosted Wordpress" offerings.
Francisco
Openstack is just a really big platform to deal with.
There's only a couple billing options with at least 1 of them charging $3/month per physical core.
There's a WHMCS module I think but you're dealing with the abortion that is modulegardens modules.
Francisco
$7 1GB+ VPS from established providers will become less common. Wage & licencing increases will push out may quality players leaving only the fly by nights.
I suspect some providers will re-evaluate $2-3 DDoS protected IPs. Primarily due to Voxility price increases.
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Not sure how confident they are to raise prices given Magic Transit is around.
I do know they are now passing the gateway fee to customers. A lot of people are seeing a $50 - $100/m spike or similar.
Francisco
Intel CPUs take a hit on code execution prevention
Non-cloudy providers start experimenting with offering container services. They execute it poorly
More cross provider linking. Like I'm trying to figure out how to make a LES VM talk to two clouds...and I'm an amateur so I can't be the only one thinking this
@havoc look into tinc. It's great for stuff like that. Not the highest performing solution (Wireguard performs better) but simple and just works.
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I predict that 2020 is the year the IP4 shortage starts to show a tangible impact in some areas, likely Europe first.
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Oh noes. Not again...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_first
I hoped we were through with fighting each other...
Amitz, a very stable genius (it's true!) and Grand Rectumfier of the official LESLOS® (LES League of Shitposters).
Certified braindead since 1974 and still perfectly happy.
Meanwhile nothing's gonna change in terms of connectivity because most large European ISP's are sitting on a surplus of IPv4's that they acquired in the early to mid '00s. This was the era that a medium sized ISP from a tiny country like The Netherlands would get a /12 subnet. Everything you needed was a good explanation for your needs.
I used to use Tinc but v1.1 has been experimental for a very long time, and I started encountering sporadic lockups where it'd get stuck at 100% CPU usage (both on v1.0 and v1.1). WireGuard is a bit trickier to configure given it doesn't automatically create a mesh network like Tinc does, but you can automate part of the config with something like Ansible to get a similar outcome. WireGuard do have mesh networking tools on their todo list, so maybe one day it'll be easier (https://www.wireguard.com/todo/#mesh-networking-tools).
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I too think we'll start to see more OpenStack options, I've personally seen some of the more "DevOps" crowd (who were traditional AWS / GCP / Azure only) start to look back at other hosting options due to price or flexibility constraints. OpenStack's features are the icing on the cake for them.
From a provider perspective, it will probably mostly translate to "lots of containers that never get security updates and thus get hacked, because the customer wrongly believes that wrapping it in a container makes system administration unnecessary". I'm not optimistic.
As occurs daily with OpenVZ, LXC, and even KVM to some degree. Stupid is as stupid does.
"It's a hard life- to be a stick insect." - Karl Pilkington
Sure, except worse. Because at least with normal VMs and OpenVZ, people have the idea that they're renting and managing a server. Whereas a ton of people view Docker as a magical application deployment platform that does everything for them.
Docker is what happens when application developers think they know more than administrators.
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Developer: haha Foiled them pesky gatekeeping administrators!
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AMD data center market share increase.
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Lots of smaller hosts are going to go out of business and only the ones that are trying to evolve with the times will prevail. You will still have your fly by night hosts that run unbelievable promos that people inevitably buy because noone can resist a deal that's too good to be true.
Fran's predictions are pretty accurate I'd say, along with what other people have said here.. We've been seeing the same trend of companies screwing everyone over with their licensing and getting bought out by VC vultures. Sadly, it seems a lot of companies don't have any integrity and are willing to sell out very easily. I've been raging for quite a while now about immoral companies.
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I think amoral is more accurate. Morals are not included in their model of business; it is just dollars and cents.
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I predict @Francisco will post an LES Exclusive offer on this very forum in 2020.
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My hosting market prediction of 2020 is by the book, prophecy of @deank.
It's all kubernetes and k8c and aws and azure and cloud and buzzwords monopolies now.
"I want to believe in servers, i truly do, but i need to see one to believe."
"I once saw a server, but might have been a yeti instead."
Them poor dev kids on e-scooters don't know what a server is.
Yes, servers are a make belief, just like Santa Claus, but hush ssh root@...
"Backend? We'll put it on the cloud. Angular ftw."
"Oh, you work in C/C++, how did they let you out of the asulym?"
It's all just levels of abstraction upon levels of abstraction.
But i don't blame them.
People don't want to take responsibility over people or themselves or anything else in that matter, in general.
Now "employers" contract businesses to find them temporary freelance workers for their half assed outsorced projects...
No health, no social benefits, it's easier this way.
Quantity over quality. No more in-house work.
Long Term Support, on random basis.
The sad part is, some peple are proud of this, misery and mental gymnastics themselves into thinking it's good.
Maybe there is more dignity in scrubbing toilets or sucking dick on the streets, than doing IT.
I predict the birth of Potassium brigade led by @J-ski.
♻ Amitz day is October 21.
♻ Join Nigh sect by adopting my avatar. Let us spread the joys of the end.
Oakley are already shopping to sell Webpros (solus, whmcs, cpanel, plesk). I'd think if they planned to jack up the prices on other stuff, they'd have done that before trying to find a buyer. The new buyer may well want to do the things you've mentioned, depends on their strategy. If it's another private equity firm then yeah they'll want to do that. But if it's a normal corporation it seems less likely.
EDIT: I take it back. Looks like Oakley are selling Webpros to another PE firm. Well, most of it. Some of it is getting shuffled from one Oakley fund to another Oakley fund.
So yeah, more price hikes on the horizon for certain. WHMCS and SolusVM being the obvious ones to get cPanel-like price hikes in 2020.
I expect that to change. 10g just doesn't earn enough revenue for carriers anymore, especially HE.net / Cogent. The way prices are going to sub 10 cents / megabit, if you don't have at least 100g feeding a pop, there's no financial way to make money off having that pop.
Seems likely to me. I've seen signs that things are finally tightening on the IPv4 front this year. I expect more of the same next year.
I must knight Sir @dahartigan first, otherwise he'll backfire and be the end of me.
You know how they say about potassium, keep your potatoes close and your potatoes even closer.
I believe it's the words of a famous Roman emperor, Potassious Maximous.
Or some rapper once said, one must give potatoes in order to take potatoes.
Anyhow, as long as you are our, The Nigh Sect leader, there shall be no end... Or, there shall be end. Or... See, i screwed myself. I should have known the nighness and ended three sentences, one paragraph, ago. Assessment of nighness is out of my league, i can only ask for opinion, @deank.
Potassium brigade full of lowend spirit will be fearsome to watch.
Fear not, the end shall be here even before you know it; you will beg for potato even before you realize.
♻ Amitz day is October 21.
♻ Join Nigh sect by adopting my avatar. Let us spread the joys of the end.
And that's the beauty of it.
The initial concept of potatoes is utterly communist-like.
Potatoe is love potatoe is life.
One can own potatoe as much as anyone else can own potatoes.
Thus, exclusively monopolizing potatoes for personal gain, is quite not doable, since there is no effective force stopping anyone to potatoe, as much as feels needed.
In the end, pure idiocy potatoe wins remains is incureable.
I think 2020 is going to be the year of AMD. Even just over the past couple of months I’ve seen a dramatic increase in the number of providers offering a Ryzen box.
I’m hyped about it; the speeds are amazing!
It don’t be like it is until it do.
WebPros will release SolusVM 6000 with increased license cost, forcing all budget providers away from SolusVM.
Maybe even Virtualizor will exploit that and increase licenses costs by a small margin.
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